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The Ashes could provide one cause for celebration, but this contest will also see the Australian team celebrate more birthday parties than an arcade in the 90s. Recent addition Jake Weatherald celebrated his thirty-first birthday a day prior to the team was named. Nathan Lyon turns 38 the day preceding the Test in Perth. Beau Webster reaches 32 just ahead of the Brisbane match, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on the second day in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood turns 35 on the final day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 before January is out.

Older Squad Interest Grows

For a couple of years there has been mounting fascination with the average age of this side and especially the bowling attack. It is unusual to have nearly all player near a Test team being over 30, aside from novelty-sized mascot Cameron Green and occasional visitor Sam Konstas. But it didn’t logically follow that older age was a disadvantage: a Test squad boasting a four-bowler lineup with 1,568 wickets between them is hardly a weakness, and it stands to reason that all of those bowlers are deep into their professional lives.

I've never felt this sure at the beginning of an Ashes tour | a former player

Perhaps what most amplified the talking point is that the backup bowlers over that time, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also well into their thirties. Younger bowlers have briefly joined teams – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before vanishing for years with injuries, meaning there has been no clear line of succession.

Transition Imposed by Setbacks

So far, that hasn’t mattered, as the Big Four plus Boland have continued backing up. Any side knows that having a batch of same-generation players might mean a batch of similarly-timed retirements, but so far change has remained hypothetical: a train that would indeed be coming round the bend when she comes, but one that had not steamed into view.

Now, suddenly, transition is here, imposed on this Australian squad in the space of a short period. The back injury to Pat Cummins was taken in stride: he would probably only miss the first Test, was the team management assessment, and as the first-change bowler behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could easily be covered for by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has gone down with a hamstring strain, the balance undergoes a much more significant shift with two players absent rather than a single one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two tight-line right-armers give the stability and precision that enables Starc’s left-arm speed and movement to be used more as a weapon of attack. Losing both of them means a major adjustment in the composition of the team. Boland handling the new ball is not unusual in his domestic career, but he has been so effective in Test matches coming on after seven or eight overs of early pressure. Now he’ll likely have to be the man up front.

Newcomer Faces Expectations

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at 31 years old himself won’t be an overawed youth, but he might become an overawed 31-year-old. A packed stadium, partly English, for the first Test of a eagerly awaited Ashes series will not make for an easy debut, no matter how many media stories portray him as relaxed. He could be wheeled onto the ground on a banana lounge and still be anxious.

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It's uncertain, it might all go swimmingly for this new attack. It might not. What is notable is how quickly Australia have transitioned from the certainty of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the uncertainty of Starc, Lyon, mumble mumble. Who knows what further injuries the first Test may bring. Who knows whether Cummins will be good to go for the Brisbane Test, and good to back up after that match, given how complicated stress fractures can be. It's uncertain how long Hazlewood might be out, with a track record of getting injured early in tournaments and a history of initially small injuries turning into longer layoffs.

Outlook Unclear

The back half of the series may witness the main four bowlers back together and all going well. Or it might see transition setting in much sooner than the long-term aim of 2027 in the UK. Not through Neser, who is apparently the next option and could be a excellent pink-ball Brisbane option, but beyond that with choices unclear. Sean Abbott was in the original team, though he’s now also hurt and has not yet played a Test match. Richardson has just had his crash-test-dummy arm repaired, and this level is not the place for easing into one’s work. Beyond them lies the real unknown, and throughout it opportunity for the visiting team. You can sense that train a-coming, rolling round the bend, and the English team ain’t seen the sunshine since they can't recall when.