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Elections are now in progress for general elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys suggesting that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again win the most seats, although analysts suggest PVV is unlikely of joining the future coalition.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which previously achieved a shock first-place finish and formed a four-party right-leaning government that collapsed within a year, is now slightly leading in surveys and is forecast to secure between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-seat house of representatives.

Nevertheless, PVV's support has declined since 2023, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have stated they will not forming a government with Wilders, who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in the summer amid a dispute concerning his controversial immigration proposals.

Key Contenders and Projections

Following a election period dominated by issues such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the nation's severe housing crisis, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, projected to gain between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist Democrats 66, projected to boost its representation by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is expected to more than double its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the PVV, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all forecast to lose seats, with several facing heavy declines.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

Under the proportional Dutch system, securing just less than one percent of the vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Of the 27 parties participating in the vote – including parties for the over-50s, youth parties, for animals, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – as many as 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This high degree of division means that no single party is expected to secure a majority, and Holland has been governed by coalitions – often including several groups in recent governments – for more than a century.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the his party becomes the largest party yet is excluded from power. However, opponents and experts argue that winning the most seats does not guarantee government participation and that any coalition with a majority is a democratic outcome.

While the final outcome is hard to predict and government negotiations could take months, analysts indicate that following the most extreme government in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a broad-based coalition headed by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, began operations at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable exit poll is anticipated shortly after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will explore potential governing alliances that could command a majority in parliament. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must face a confidence vote in the house before taking office.