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In October 2022, when Rishi Sunak assumed office as the UK's leader, he became the fifth British prime minister to take up the role over a six-year span.

Triggered in the UK by Britain's EU exit, this signified exceptional governmental instability. So how might we describe what is unfolding in the French Republic, now on its fifth premier in two years – with three in the past 10 months?

The current premier, the newly reinstated Sébastien Lecornu, may have secured a temporary reprieve on Tuesday, abandoning Emmanuel Macron’s flagship pensions overhaul in exchange for support from Socialist lawmakers as the price for his government’s survival.

But it is, at best, a temporary fix. The EU’s number two economic power is trapped in a political permacrisis, the likes of which it has not experienced for decades – possibly not since the establishment of its Fifth French Republic in 1958 – and from which there appears no easy escape.

Minority Rule

Key background: from the moment Macron called an risky early parliamentary vote in 2024, the nation has had a hung parliament split into three opposing factions – the left, far right and his own centre-right alliance – none with anything close to a majority.

At the same time, the country faces dual debt and deficit crises: its national debt level and budget shortfall are now almost twice the EU limit, and hard constitutional deadlines to pass a 2026 budget that at least begins to rein in spending are nigh.

In this challenging environment, both Lecornu’s immediate predecessors – Michel Barnier, who lasted from September to December 2024, and François Bayrou, who took office from December 2024 to September 2025 – were ousted by the assembly.

In mid-September, the leader named his trusted associate Lecornu as his latest PM. But when, a little over two weeks ago, Lecornu unveiled his new cabinet – which proved to be much the same as the old one – he encountered anger from allies and opponents alike.

So much so that the following day, he resigned. After just 27 days in office, Lecornu became the briefest-serving prime minister in modern French history. In a dignified speech, he cited political rigidity, saying “party loyalties” and “personal ambitions” would make his job all but impossible.

Another twist in the tale: just hours after Lecornu’s resignation, Macron asked him to stay on for two more days in a final attempt to secure multi-party support – a task, to put it gently, not without complications.

Next, two ex-prime ministers publicly turned on the struggling leader. Meanwhile, the right-wing RN and leftist LFI declined to engage with Lecornu, vowing to reject any and every new government unless there were snap elections.

Lecornu persisted in his duties, engaging with all willing listeners. At the conclusion of his extension, he appeared on television to say he thought “a solution remained possible” to prevent a vote. The president’s office confirmed the president would name a fresh premier 48 hours later.

Macron kept his promise – and on that Friday appointed … Sébastien Lecornu, again. So this week – with Macron helpfully sniping from the sidelines that the country’s rival political parties were “creating discord” and “solely responsible for this chaos” – was Lecornu’s critical test. Would he endure – and is he able to approve the crucial budget?

In a critical address, the 39-year-old PM spelled out his budget priorities, giving the centre-left Socialist party (PS), who detest Macron’s unpopular pension overhaul, what they were expecting: Macron’s key policy would be frozen until 2027.

With the right-wing LR already on board, the Socialists said they would not back no-confidence motions proposed against Lecornu by the far right and radical left – meaning the government should survive those votes, scheduled for Thursday.

It is, nevertheless, by no means certain to be able to approve its €30bn austerity budget: the PS clearly stated that it would be demanding further compromises. “This move,” said its leader, Olivier Faure, “is only the beginning.”

A Cultural Shift

The issue is, the more Lecornu cedes to the centre-left, the more he will meet resistance from the centre-right. And, like the PS, the conservatives are themselves split on dealing with the administration – certain members remain eager to bring it down.

A glance at the parliamentary arithmetic shows how tough Lecornu’s task – and longer-term survival – will be. A combined 264 lawmakers from the RN, radical-left LFI, Greens, Communists and UDR seek his removal.

To succeed, they need a 288-vote majority in parliament – so if they can persuade just 24 of the PS’s 69 deputies or the LR’s 47 representatives (or both) to vote with them, Macron’s fifth unstable premier in two years is, similar to his forerunners, toast.

Most expect this to occur soon. Even if, by some miracle, the divided parliament musters collective will to approve a budget this year, the prospects for the government beyond that look grim.

So does an exit exist? Early elections would be doubtful to resolve the issue: polls suggest nearly all parties except the RN would lose seats, but there would still be no clear majority. A new prime minister would confront identical numerical challenges.

Another possibility might be for Macron himself to step down. After a presidential vote, his successor would dissolve parliament and aim for a legislative majority in the ensuing legislative vote. But this also remains unclear.

Polls suggest the future president will be Marine Le Pen or Jordan Bardella. There is at least an strong possibility that French electorate, having elected a far-right president, might reconsider giving them parliamentary power.

Ultimately, France may not escape its predicament until its politicians accept the new political reality, which is that decisive majorities are a thing of the past, winner-takes-all no longer applies, and compromise is not synonymous with failure.

Many think that cultural shift will not be possible under the country’s current constitution. “This is no conventional parliamentary crisis, but a crise de régime” that will endure indefinitely.

“The regime … was never designed to facilitate – and actively discourages – the formation of ruling alliances common in the rest of Europe. The Fifth Republic could be in its final stage.”